MMA analyst Luke Thomas addressed the significant decline in UFC championship bouts during his live chat, revealing numbers that paint a concerning picture for the promotion’s direction under new ownership.
Thomas broke down the championship match statistics with precision. “If all of the current scheduled undisputed matches happen for the rest of the year, we’ll have 13,” he explained. This represents a dramatic departure from previous years. “Last year was a record. It was higher than 20.”
According to Thomas, historical norms paint an even clearer picture of the decline. “Most years, even for years that had a similar number of events with a similar number of weight classes, typically that number tends to be high teens, 18, 19, maybe 17, 16, but like typically high teens.”
The analyst noted that only two of 11 divisions will have two undisputed title matches this year.
Thomas expressed uncertainty about whether this represents a deliberate strategy shift. “I don’t know if this is intentional or not. I think we need to see next year. I have a feeling it is,” he said. His theory centers on artificial scarcity as a business tactic.
“I have a feeling that they’re constraining scarcity on purpose, as a way to both introduce scarcity in terms of like, hey, if we have a title match, that’s kind of, you gotta go see it because like Lord knows how many more,” Thomas explained. “We’re going to spread them out now and just kind of have fewer of them when we need to as a way to introduce false scarcity into the market.”
However, he acknowledged multiple factors could be at play. “We’re really not going to know until the end of 2027 because this is the first year outside of the ESPN deal. How much of this is bad luck from injury? How much of this is maybe they were trying some stuff based on calculations of removing the streaming pay-per-view paywall? We don’t really know.”
Thomas connected the decline to the transformation under TKO ownership, describing what he calls “the age of extraction.” He contrasted the current ownership structure with the previous Fertitta era.
“When the Fertitas own the UFC, I had plenty of criticisms. But I’m just going to say, whether you liked that time or whether you didn’t like that time, that is very, very different from a group financial perspective,” Thomas said.
He explained the fundamental shift: “This is a different ownership group. It’s a much larger group. It’s a much more capitalized group. It’s much more private equity leveraged. All these things utterly transforms their relationship to what they’re bringing to the consumer.”
The analyst noted that TKO’s approach reflects trends in sports ownership. “This is the financialization of sports ownership generally. Now it is financial groups put together. They’re gonna treat this like a financial instrument. This is a major investment. Many rich people are putting together to make their money on this.”
Thomas pointed to other cost-cutting measures that align with the title match reduction. The promotion has significantly reduced international events and relies more heavily on Apex cards without gate revenue.
“In 2014 they went to Brazil seven times. Seven times in Brazil in 2014. They’re not going to go in 2026 at all,” he noted.
He described the strategy as introducing scarcity while raising prices elsewhere. “Because we can charge premium prices by introducing a degree of scarcity into the market, we’re pulling shows out of the market. We’re going to put those at the Apex. We’re going to pull that out, we’re going to introduce scarcity to the situation and now we’re going to just charge exorbitant ticket prices.”
Thomas established a benchmark for future concern. “If next year you’re hovering between 11 and 14, I would say that’s a problem. If you’re 15 or less next year, that’s a real problem.”
He emphasized this isn’t just about numbers but about the fundamental nature of the sport. “The real tragedy here is what has been happening to us since this day,” he said, reflecting on the changing relationship between the promotion and fans.
When asked about potential fan backlash forcing change, Thomas was blunt: “They don’t care. Guys, who has taken to the streets? Who thinks it’s a legislative priority? Which political constituency is that?”
His assessment of the future was equally direct. “I do not expect to see remedy to this situation within my lifetime.”
