China Won’t Be Able To Pull Off a Moon Landing Until 2030

China’s space program is racing against the clock, but recent developments suggest the nation’s ambitious timeline for putting astronauts on the lunar surface faces significant obstacles.

According to IEEE Spectrum, China’s Mengzhou spacecraft program continues to advance, with the Lanyue lunar lander undergoing engine tests in 2025 at a facility in Hebei province.

Yet despite these technological strides, the 2030 target date appears increasingly optimistic as engineers grapple with the immense challenges of crewed lunar missions.

The push to reach the moon represents more than national pride for China. It’s a direct challenge to NASA’s own lunar ambitions and a bid to become only the second nation to successfully land humans on Earth’s natural satellite. The technical hurdles, however, remain formidable even with modern technology that far surpasses what was available during the Apollo era.

While China works toward its lunar goals, public discourse about moon missions has taken an unexpected turn in American popular culture. UFC commentator and podcaster Joe Rogan recently dedicated a substantial portion of his show to questioning the authenticity of the 1969 Apollo 11 mission during an episode with guest Danny Jones.

“This is 1969. You’re on the phone with Richard Nixon from the moon. Are you out of your mind? Is this supposed to be real?” Rogan asked, highlighting what he views as technological impossibilities from that era.

His skepticism centered on various aspects of the historic mission, from communication capabilities to the quality of footage transmitted from the lunar surface. Rogan also pointed to the behavior of astronauts during their post-mission press conference as evidence something was amiss.

“The post-flight press conference looks like these guys have a gun to their head. It looks like a hostage video,” he observed, suggesting the crew appeared uncomfortable rather than celebratory about their achievement.

The podcast host compared Apollo footage unfavorably to contemporary cinema. “The stuff from 2001 [A Space Odyssey] is more sophisticated. It looks better than the stuff from the moon landings,” Rogan noted, referencing Stanley Kubrick’s groundbreaking science fiction film released just one year before the first moon landing.

This comparison led to speculation about whether Kubrick himself might have been involved in creating staged footage. Rogan and Jones discussed theories explored in the documentary “Room 237,” which analyzes potential hidden meanings in Kubrick’s film “The Shining,” including possible allusions to the moon landing.

“That guy could fake it 100%,” Rogan stated about Kubrick’s technical capabilities, arguing the director possessed both the skill and resources to create convincing space footage.

Remote camera operation during the lunar module’s ascent also seemed implausible to Rogan. “This is 1969. You’re getting that footage? Like, what are you doing?” he asked, questioning how cameras could track the ascending spacecraft with such precision given the era’s primitive remote technology.

Rogan suggested the moon landing might have been part of the Cold War strategy to demoralize the Soviet Union and declare victory in the space race without achieving the actual technological feat. He argued that faking such an accomplishment would have been the perfect way to bankrupt Soviet competitors while avoiding the enormous technical risks.